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Business valuation: How do you evaluate your own start-up for investors?

11/22/2023 | by Patrick Fischer, M.Sc., Founder & Data Scientist: FDS

One of the crucial questions for entrepreneurs looking for investors is the valuation of their start-up. Getting the valuation right is crucial as it will influence how much equity you offer and how much control you have to give up. In this article, you will learn how to expertly value your start-up to convince investors.

Why is the valuation important?

The valuation of your start-up is not just a number, but a key indicator of the value investors ascribe to your company. An appropriate valuation is crucial to attract investor interest and ensure you don't give up too much equity or undervalue your company.

Methods for valuing start-ups:

Comparables approach: This method compares your startup to similar companies in the same industry that have recently received investment. The value of your company is derived from the valuations of comparable companies.

Income Approach: In this method, the value of your business is calculated based on expected future earnings or cash flows. This requires a detailed financial forecast.

Asset value method (asset approach): This determines the value of your company based on its assets and liabilities. This method is useful if your company has many physical assets.

Key factors in the valuation:

Market potential: Investors are often willing to pay a higher price for start-ups that have a large market potential. Show that your product or service is positioned in a growing market.

Revenues and profits: The financial performance of your company is a key valuation factor. Investors want to know how much revenue you are generating and whether you are profitable or will be profitable in the near future.

Competitive advantages: Unique technologies, strong brands or exclusive partnerships can increase the value of your company. Emphasise your competitive advantages.

Team and leadership: Investors see the founding team as an important factor. Show that your team has the necessary skills and experience to lead the company to success.

Negotiation and flexibility:

Remember that valuation is often subject to negotiation. Investors may use different valuation methods and assumptions to assess the value of your business. Be flexible and prepared to explain the arguments for your valuation.

When is the right time for a valuation?

Valuing your start-up is relevant at different stages, including the seed round, Series A and later funding rounds. It is important to choose the right time for a valuation, as the value of your company can vary at different stages of development.

All in all, the valuation of a start-up is a complex process that requires care and expertise. It is often advisable to seek professional advice from financial experts or business advisors. A proper valuation is crucial to gain the confidence of investors and ensure that your company is successfully funded to achieve its growth objectives.

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What is the concept of robustness in statistics and how is it evaluated?

10/10/2023 | by Patrick Fischer, M.Sc., Founder & Data Scientist: FDS

In statistics, the concept of robustness refers to the ability of a statistical method to provide stable and reliable results even when the underlying assumptions are violated or the data contain outliers. Robust methods are less prone to extreme values ​​or violations of the assumptions and provide robust estimates or test results.

The robustness of a statistical method is usually assessed by comparison with other methods or by simulation experiments. There are several criteria that are taken into account when assessing robustness:

Influence analysis: The method is checked for how strongly individual observations or outliers influence the results. A robust method should be relatively insensitive to single observations that deviate greatly from the rest of the sample.

Comparison with non-robust methods: The robust method is compared with non-robust methods to show that it gives better or comparable results in violation of the assumptions or in the presence of outliers.

Simulation studies: The robustness of a method can be evaluated by simulating data with known properties, such as outliers or violations of assumptions. The results of the method are compared to the true values ​​or the results of other methods to assess their performance.

Theoretical Analysis: In some cases, mathematical or theoretical analysis can be used to assess the robustness of a method. This often involves examining the impact of data breaches on the properties of the method.

It is important to note that robustness is not an absolute property. One method may be more robust than others, but still potentially vulnerable to certain types of breaches or runaways. Therefore, it is advisable to consider different aspects of robustness in order to select the appropriate method for a particular statistical analysis.

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How to evaluate model goodness in regression analysis?

09/29/2023 | by Patrick Fischer, M.Sc., Founder & Data Scientist: FDS

In regression analysis, there are several metrics that can be used to evaluate the goodness of the model. Here are some common methods:

Measure of Determination (R²): R² indicates how well the dependent variable is explained by the independent variables in the model. It ranges from 0 to 1. A value of 1 indicates that the model perfectly explains the observed data. A lower value indicates a lower fit of the model to the data. Note, however, that R² is not always a reliable metric, especially when the number of independent variables is high.

Adjusted coefficient of determination (adjusted R²): Unlike R², adjusted R² takes into account the number of independent variables in the model. It is therefore useful if you want to compare models that have different numbers of independent variables. A higher value of adjusted R² indicates a better fit of the model to the data.

Residual analysis: analysis of the residuals (or prediction errors) can also provide information about model performance. You can look at the distribution of the residuals to make sure they are normally distributed and have no systematic patterns. Systematic patterns in the residuals might indicate that the model is not capturing certain aspects of the data.

Standard error of the estimators: The standard error of the estimators indicates how precisely the coefficients are estimated in the model. A low standard error indicates a more precise estimate.

F-test and t-test: The F-test can be used to test whether the included independent variables have an overall statistically significant effect on the dependent variable. The t-test can be used to test the statistical significance of individual coefficients.

It is important to use multiple evaluation metrics and critically interpret the results to gain a comprehensive understanding of model performance.

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Success measurement & -documentation of a press release - from when it really makes sense

09/06/2023 | by Patrick Fischer, M.Sc., Founder & Data Scientist: FDS

Measuring and documenting the success of a press release only makes sense if you have sufficient time and capacity to carry out a systematic and sound analysis. This means that you need to conduct appropriate monitoring and measurement of the press release and record the results before you can evaluate it as successful.

There are some basic steps you need to take to measure and document the success of a press release. First, you need to create a press release plan to determine how and when you will send out the press release. You will also need to define a set of objectives, such as which audience you want to target and what result you want to achieve.

Once the plan is set, you can combine the press release with a campaign to reinforce the release. You will also need to set up a system for recording the contacts. This can be done through CRM software or another contact management system.

You then need to measure and document the success of the press release. This can be done through a number of methods, such as collecting and analyzing data generated by the press release or the number of new contacts generated by the press release.

After you have completed measuring and documenting the success of the press release, you can compare and evaluate the results and draw conclusions. This will help you better plan and manage future press releases.

As a general rule, you should not begin measuring and documenting the success of a press release until you have received a reasonable volume of data a few weeks after the release. This gives you enough time to perform a sound analysis.

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Costs press distribution list - You have to reckon with these costs

07/06/2023 | by Patrick Fischer, M.Sc., Founder & Data Scientist: FDS

Press distribution lists are an important tool for distributing your press releases to journalists, editors and other relevant media representatives. They enable you to communicate your messages effectively and reach a wide audience. However, when using press distribution lists, you should also consider the associated costs. In this article, we'll take a look at the various cost aspects that may be involved when using press distributors.

Basic fees: Most press distribution companies charge a basic fee for their services. This fee can vary depending on the provider and the scope of the service. Some providers charge a monthly or annual membership fee, while others charge a per press release fee. It is important to compare the fee structure of different providers and choose the one that best fits your needs and budget.

Target audience segmentation: another factor that can affect cost is audience segmentation. Some press distribution lists offer the ability to target your press releases to specific audiences or specific members of the media. This can help target your message to relevant recipients, but it also often increases costs compared to a broader distribution list. Carefully consider which audiences are relevant to your press releases and whether the additional cost is worth it.

Additional Services.

Additional services: In addition to sending out press releases, some press distribution lists offer additional services that may also involve costs. These may include media list building, professional press release writing, or the ability to manage media contacts. These services can support your PR efforts, but should be carefully evaluated for need and viability.

International Distribution: If you want to reach an international audience, consider the cost of distributing your press releases internationally. Some press release distributors offer worldwide distribution, while others specialize only in certain regions or languages. The cost of international distribution can vary widely depending on the target region and the scope of the service.

Analysis and reporting: monitoring and evaluating the results of your press outreach is critical to measuring the success of your efforts. Some press outlets offer analytics and reporting tools to give you insight into the reach and impact of your press releases. However, these tools may come at an additional cost. When choosing a vendor, also consider the analytics and reporting capabilities.

It is important of the selection of a press distributor not only to pay attention to the cost, but also to consider the quality of the service. A low-cost provider is not necessarily the best if it does not provide the desired reach and audience segmentation, or does not ensure reliable distribution of your press releases.

Compare different providers in terms of their track record, their reach in relevant media channels, and the satisfaction of other customers. Read reviews and testimonials to gain insight into the quality of the service.

Advance your service by reading reviews and testimonials.

In addition, consider your PR strategy and goals. If you send out press releases regularly and want to reach a broad audience, a membership with a monthly fee may be more beneficial than paying per press release. However, if you only send out press releases occasionally, the fee-based option might be more cost-effective.

In summary, the cost of a press release distribution list depends on several factors, including base fees, audience segmentation, additional services, international distribution and analytics tools. It is important to carefully weigh your specific needs and budget to select the appropriate press distribution list for your PR efforts.

Remember that an effective PR strategy depends not only on using a press distribution list, but also on other activities such as contacting journalists directly, building media relationships and carefully crafting your press releases. A well-thought-out PR strategy combined with an appropriate press distribution list can help you successfully spread your messages and reach your desired target audience.

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