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The digital display advertising market in Germany recorded impressive growth of 24.7 percent in 2021 and an increase of more than one billion euros compared to the previous year. This is according to data from the Online-Vermarkterkreis (OVK) in the Bundesverband Digitale Wirtschaft (BVDW). The Corona pandemic acted as a catalyst for this development, driving digitization and increasing demand for digital advertising. In total, digital display advertising revenues amounted to EUR 5.12 billion in 2021.
The OVK's "Paid Content" trend study sheds light on users' willingness to pay for editorial content on the Internet. Only 21 percent of users resort to paid online content. Men (63 percent) and young users between 16 and 29 (27 percent) in particular show an above-average willingness to pay for such content.
The study also shows that paid subscriptions to e-papers and e-magazines are used most frequently, followed by paid access to news portals or online services and paid podcasts. The age structure influences these preferences: Older people aged 50 and over are more interested in e-papers or e-magazines, while younger users prefer podcasts.
Nevertheless, about 37 percent of non-payers believe news content should always be free. Those who would pay for editorial content are open to different access models. For example, about 66 percent could come to terms with agreeing to website cookies as an alternative to pay models, while about 54 percent would accept mandatory registration, provided they could continue to access content for free.
Steffen Bax, deputy chairman of the OVK, emphasizes that advertising revenues are still indispensable for financing journalistic content on the Internet. Both paying users and users of free content see advertising as an accepted method of supporting journalistic content online.
The OVK is committed to the development of a new online media platform.
The OVK continues to expect double-digit growth in the digital display advertising market despite the pandemic effects fading. For 2022, they forecast growth of 11.8 percent to more than EUR 5.7 billion. Programmatic advertising is expected to exceed the 4 billion mark and stabilize at a level of 71 percent. Moving image advertising will also generate revenues of EUR 2.1 billion in 2022. In-page advertising will remain dominant, accounting for 63 percent of revenues.
The global pandemic not only brought health effects, but also triggered far-reaching changes in the economy and consumer behavior. Online retail in particular experienced an unprecedented boom during the COVID-19 pandemic, as consumers increasingly used digital shopping options. In Germany, however, the economic situation has changed, and the country is now facing a recession that poses new challenges for the e-commerce sector. In addition, inflation of up to 10% is adding additional burdens.
From boom to bust: e-commerce in recession
During the pandemic, the trend toward online shopping continued at an accelerated pace. Many consumers increasingly used online platforms for safety and convenience, which led to a surge in e-commerce sales. Companies that already had established online presences benefited from this shift and saw significant sales growth.
However, the tide has turned as Germany is now going through a recession. With economic uncertainty, online retail demand is down. Consumers have become more cautious in the face of financial worries and uncertainty, especially when it comes to non-essential spending. This change in attitude has led to a noticeable decline in e-commerce sales.
Challenges in times of inflation
The economic situation is further complicated by inflation of up to 10%. These price increases affect the purchasing power of consumers and could lead them to be even more cautious with their spending. For online retailers, this creates several difficulties:
Price pressure: Inflation may increase the cost of goods and services, putting pressure on online retailers' margins. They may be forced to avoid price increases in order to remain competitive.
Customer behavior: In times of inflation, consumers may pay more attention to deals and discounts in search of bargains. This can lead to increased competition and a challenge for customer loyalty.
Logistics issues: price increases may also affect logistics and shipping costs, which could impact online retailers' profitability.
Opportunities and adjustments in the e-commerce sector
Despite the challenges, recession and inflation also present opportunities for online retailers:
Creativity in product design: companies could offer products that are in high demand during times of crisis and inflation, such as affordable alternatives or durable goods.
Efficient supply chains: Optimized logistics and efficient supply chains can help reduce costs and alleviate pressure from rising prices.
Customer intimacy: An increased focus on customer communication, customer-focused solutions and personalized offerings can strengthen customer loyalty.
Conclusion
The e-commerce sector has moved from a boom to a period of challenges as Germany faces recession and noticeable inflation. The adaptability of online retailers will be critical in coping with the new economic realities. Companies that act flexibly, develop innovative strategies and focus on consumer needs in these uncertain times could emerge stronger from the crisis and consolidate their position in the long term.
The rosy times for German startups appear to be passé as they struggle with a weak economy and tougher financing conditions. According to a Startup Association survey conducted by Deutsche Presse-Agentur, the business climate in the industry is at one of the lowest levels since the low point during the Corona pandemic in 2020, with the current score of 38.1 points only slightly higher than in 2020 (31.8 points). This continues a trend that has been seen since the record-breaking 2021.
The survey, which is based on a similar calculation method as the Ifo Institute, reflects a high level of uncertainty among founders. About 65 percent of the startups surveyed have difficulty assessing the future situation. Nevertheless, a slight increase in business expectations is evident, while the current business situation remains at the lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic.
The association stresses that after a wave of innovations that followed the shock of the pandemic in 2020, the current situation has become more difficult. Rising inflation and higher interest rates have led startups to act more cautiously. One-third of companies have reduced hiring and adjusted funding plans.
Since 2022, German startups have faced major challenges. While they were able to raise record amounts from investors in 2021, geopolitical tensions, rising interest rates and economic uncertainty have dampened the market. Investors are more cautious, resulting in many startups having to cut jobs and funding dropping dramatically in 2022. The situation remained tight in the first half of 2023, as startups raised about half the funding they did last year.
In particular, the ability to secure large funding rounds has declined sharply. There has not been a round over 250 million euros this year, compared to four such rounds in 2022 and eight in 2021, and the majority of founders rate the willingness of funders, particularly venture capital funds, as poor.
In view of these challenges, the startup association is calling for increased support from the German government. In particular, the expected "Future Financing Act" should be passed promptly to strengthen the location for founders. Among other things, this law should offer more favorable regulations for employee shareholdings and easier access to the capital market for growth-oriented companies. However, the implementation of this project has been delayed so far.
On Tuesday, the federal ministries of economics and finance announced that a new financing instrument called "RegioInnoGrowth" will support startups and small innovative SMEs. For this purpose, the federal government plans to provide up to 450 million euros from the Future Fund and the ERP Special Fund. Companies can each receive up to five million euros in funding.
On August 15, 2023, the CEO of the German start-up association, Miele, expressed his wish for increased political attention and improved framework conditions for the local start-up scene. The German government, he said, should give the industry more priority, particularly to promote innovative strength and future orientation. Compared to countries such as the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and France, Germany is still at a disadvantage when it comes to framework conditions for startups. Areas such as immigration of skilled workers, digitization and access to capital are better developed in other European countries.
The competition for talented professionals is particularly demanding, and German startups often lose out. The industry focuses on start-ups with innovative business ideas and great growth potential. These start-ups are characterized by young founders and employees who focus on a digital orientation from the outset. Overall, the association is calling for better support from the political side to strengthen Germany's position in the European startup competition.
The recently published analysis of death rates in Germany for July 2023 by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) sheds light on interesting outliers and significant deviations from expectations in previous years. The figures show that a total of 75,686 people died during the month. This is close to the 2019-2022 median for the same period, but with a small deviation of -1%.
Calendar week 28 (July 10-16) is particularly striking, with a +4% increase over the comparative figure. This discrepancy could be due to a variety of factors, including possible external influences or even statistical outliers.
The analysis also highlights the possible link between high temperatures and mortality rates. The Robert Koch Institute report highlights heat-related mortality, showing that the weekly average temperature exceeded a critical threshold during this period. This threshold was identified as the point at which additional deaths are expected due to heat. The German Meteorological Service also confirmed elevated temperatures in the first half of July, but these decreased significantly in the second half of the month.
Interestingly, the weekly death case rates mirrored these correlations. During calendar weeks 29 and 30 (July 17-30), deaths decreased by -2% to -6% compared with the previous weeks. These declines correlate with the drop in temperatures during the month.
Note FDS: However, it is not just the heat-related effects that are striking. Other calendar weeks, such as numbers 1, 5, 12, 15, 46, and 48, showed deviations from expected mortality numbers that could indicate possible contributing factors or statistical outliers.
It should be emphasized that such data interpretations should be made prudently. Statistical deviations can have a variety of causes, including natural variations, unusual events, or even data quality issues. More in-depth analyses are needed to better understand these outliers.
Overall, the results of this analysis highlight the need to consider several influential factors that may affect mortality rates. This underscores the importance of comprehensive data interpretation and in-depth analysis to uncover the true causes of statistical anomalies.